‘A Strange Loop’ (Photo: Marc J. Franklin')

by Chris Peterson, OnStage Blog Founder

With the Tony Awards nominations being announced this week, so begins the season of predicting who will be taking home the coveted awards on June 12th. Here are my picks of who I think will win and should win. I’ll also include some notes about each category as well.

Best Orchestrations

David Cullen – Company
Tom Curran – Six
Simon Hale – Girl from the North Country
David Holcenberg and Jason Michael Webb – MJ
Charlie Rosen – A Strange Loop

Will Win: Charlie Rosen – A Strange Loop

Should Win: Charlie Rosen – A Strange Loop

Notes: I believe the night will belong to ‘A Strange Loop’, so I expect that this will go to Rosen. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Curran’s work on ‘Six’ or what Holcenberg and Webb did with ‘MJ’ was recognized here.

Best Choreography

Camille A. Brown – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf
Warren Carlyle – The Music Man
Carrie-Anne Ingrouille – Six
Bill T. Jones – Paradise Square
Christopher Wheeldon – MJ

Will Win: Christopher Wheeldon – MJ

Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon – MJ

Notes: Look, as much as I object to the existence of ‘MJ’, I have to recognize the incredible work done by the artists involved. That starts with Wheeldon. I would be shocked if he doesn’t win this. But a win for Brown would be much deserved.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Simon Baker – Girl from the North Country
Paul Gatehouse – Six
Ian Dickinson for Autograph – Company
Drew Levy – A Strange Loop
Gareth Owen – MJ

Will Win: Gareth Owen – MJ

Should Win: Paul Gatehouse – Six

Notes: I’d really like to see Gatehouse win here, but I don’t think it will happen given the amount of sound design in ‘MJ’.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Dominic Bilkey and Nick Powell – The Lehman Trilogy
Justin Ellington – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf
Mikhail Fiksel – Dana H.
Palmer Hefferan – The Skin of Our Teeth
Mikaal Sulaiman – Macbeth

Will Win: Dominic Bilkey and Nick Powell – The Lehman Trilogy

Should Win: Justin Ellington – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf

Notes: Simply put, Ellington deserves this. But I also think it will be a night for ‘The Lehman Trilogy’, starting with this one.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Neil Austin – Company
Tim Deiling – Six
Donald Holder – Paradise Square
Natasha Katz – MJ
Bradley King – Flying Over Sunset
Jen Schriever – A Strange Loop

Will Win: Natasha Katz – MJ

Should Win: TIE - Tim Deiling – Six or Neil Austin – Company

Notes: I think Katz is the favorite here but in a perfect world I’d want a tie between Deilig and Austin for their work. Lighting design was a high point for both ‘Six’ and ‘Company’.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Joshua Carr – Hangmen
Jiyoun Chang – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf
Jon Clark – The Lehman Trilogy
Jane Cox – Macbeth
Yi Zhao – The Skin of Our Teeth

Will Win: Jon Clark – The Lehman Trilogy

Should Win: Jane Cox – Macbeth

Notes: I don’t doubt that Clark will win but Cox’s work should absolutely be recognized.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Fly Davis – Caroline, or Change
Toni-Leslie James – Paradise Square
William Ivey Long – Diana
Santo Loquasto – The Music Man
Gabriella Slade – Six
Paul Tazewell – MJ

Will Win: Santo Loquasto – The Music Man

Should Win: Gabriella Slade – Six

Notes: First of all, Long shouldn’t even be here. He shouldn’t have been nominated due to the multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against him. He should also have been ruled ineligible due to the fact that he was booted from the production. Having said that, I think it’s Loquasto’s award to lose. But I would really like to see Slade recognized for costumes that have become iconic in such a short time.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Montana Levi Blanco – The Skin of Our Teeth

Sarafina Bush – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf

Emilio Sosa – Trouble in Mind

Jane Greenwood – Plaza Suite

Jennifer Moeller – Clyde's

Will Win: Montana Levi Blanco – The Skin of Our Teeth

Should Win: Montana Levi Blanco – The Skin of Our Teeth

Notes: If you’ve seen ‘The Skin of Our Teeth’ you’d know that Blanco’s work belongs in textbooks. It deserves the Tony.

‘The Skin of Our Teeth’ (Photo: Julieta Cervantes)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Beowulf Boritt and 59 Productions – Flying Over Sunset
Bunny Christie – Company
Arnulfo Maldonado – A Strange Loop
Derek McLane and Peter Nigrini – MJ
Allen Moyer – Paradise Square

Will Win: Bunny Christie – Company

Should Win: Bunny Christie – Company

Notes: I may be alone in thinking this but there wasn’t a stand-out design that is a hands-down favorite for me. But I really liked the work that Christie did with Company, but I wouldn’t be shocked if anyone else won in this category.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

A Strange Loop – Michael R. Jackson (music and lyrics)
Flying Over Sunset – Tom Kitt (music) and Michael Korie (lyrics)
Mr. Saturday Night – Jason Robert Brown (music) and Amanda Green (lyrics)
Paradise Square – Masi Asare and Nathan Tysen (lyrics) and Jason Howland (music)
Six – Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss (music and lyrics)

Will Win: A Strange Loop – Michael R. Jackson (music and lyrics)

Should Win: A Strange Loop – Michael R. Jackson (music and lyrics)

Notes: This is going to be Jackson’s night. Like ‘Hamilton’ and ‘RENT’, ‘A Strange Loop’ is generationally magnificent. It would be a major upset to see anyone else win.

Best Book of a Musical

A Strange Loop – Michael R. Jackson
Girl from the North Country – Conor McPherson
MJ – Lynn Nottage
Mr. Saturday Night – Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz, and Babaloo Mandel
Paradise Square – Christina Anderson, Larry Kirwan, and Craig Lucas

Will Win: Mr. Saturday Night – Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz, and Babaloo Mandel

Should Win: A Strange Loop – Michael R. Jackson

Notes: I think Jackson’s success should continue here, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Tony voters will want to make sure Crystal goes home with something.

Best Direction of a Musical

Jamie Armitage and Lucy Moss – Six
Stephen Brackett – A Strange Loop
Marianne Elliott – Company
Conor McPherson – Girl from the North Country
Christopher Wheeldon – MJ

Will Win: Stephen Brackett – A Strange Loop

Should Win: Stephen Brackett – A Strange Loop

Notes: Since 2010, the Best Director award has gone to the person that helmed the Best Musical all but three times. I don’t expect that to change with Brackett. He deserves this.

Best Direction of a Play

Lileana Blain-Cruz – The Skin of Our Teeth
Camille A. Brown – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf
Sam Mendes – The Lehman Trilogy
Neil Pepe – American Buffalo
Les Waters – Dana H.

Will Win: Sam Mendes – The Lehman Trilogy

Should Win: Camille A. Brown – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf

Notes: I have no doubt Mendes will take home the prize but I would love to see Brown win this. She would become the first Black woman to receive the award.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Jeannette Bayardelle – Girl from the North Country as Mrs. Neilsen
Shoshana Bean – Mr. Saturday Night as Susan Young
Jayne Houdyshell – The Music Man as Eulalie McKechnie Shinn
L. Morgan Lee – A Strange Loop as Thought 1
Patti LuPone – Company as Joanne
Jennifer Simard – Company as Sarah

Will Win: Shoshana Bean – Mr. Saturday Night as Susan Young

Should Win: L. Morgan Lee – A Strange Loop as Thought 1

Notes: This is a very tough call for me. It’s an open race with no clear front runner. I’ll be interested to see how the other awards go about this. Bean is incredible in ‘Mr. Saturday Night’. Simard is also turning in a career moment with ‘Company’. And Lee winning would be amazing for multiple reasons - 1. Her performance is fantastic and deserves a win. 2. She would become the first trans performer to win a Tony.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

Matt Doyle – Company as Jamie
Sidney DuPont – Paradise Square as Washington Henry
Jared Grimes – Funny Girl as Eddie Ryan
John-Andrew Morrison – A Strange Loop as Thought 4
A. J. Shively – Paradise Square as Owen Duignan

Will Win: Jared Grimes – Funny Girl as Eddie Ryan

Should win: Matt Doyle – Company as Jamie

Notes: Another tough call as I’d like to see all of these nominees win. I think Grimes will get it but Doyle is doing some incredible work in ‘Company’.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Uzo Aduba – Clyde's as Clyde
Rachel Dratch – POTUS as Stephanie
Kenita R. Miller – for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf as Lady in Red
Phylicia Rashad – Skeleton Crew as Faye
Julie White – POTUS as Harriet
Kara Young – Clyde's as Letitia

Will Win: Rachel Dratch – POTUS as Stephanie

Should Win: Rachel Dratch – POTUS as Stephanie

Notes: Dratch has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. If you would have told me last year she would be the favorite to win a Tony, I might not have believed you but her performance is absolutely fantastic.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

Alfie Allen – Hangmen as Mooney
Chuck Cooper – Trouble in Mind as Sheldon Forrester
Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Take Me Out as Mason Marzac
Ron Cephas Jones – Clyde's as Montrellous
Michael Oberholtzer – Take Me Out as Shane Mungitt
Jesse Williams – Take Me Out as Darren Lemming

Will Win: Ron Cephas Jones – Clyde's as Montrellous

Should Win: Jesse Williams – Take Me Out as Darren Lemming

Notes: I really want Williams to win this but I have a feeling that the multiple nods for ‘Take Me Out’ will cancel each other out leading to an equally much-deserved win for Jones.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Sharon D. Clarke – Caroline, or Change as Caroline Thibodeaux
Carmen Cusack – Flying Over Sunset as Clare Boothe Luce
Sutton Foster – The Music Man as Marian Paroo
Joaquina Kalukango – Paradise Square as Nelly O'Brien
Mare Winningham – Girl from the North Country as Elizabeth Laine

Will Win: Sharon D. Clarke – Caroline, or Change as Caroline Thibodeaux

Should Win: Sharon D. Clarke – Caroline, or Change as Caroline Thibodeaux

Notes: First of all, not to be mean, but Foster shouldn’t even be here. Katrina Lenk(‘Company’) absolutely should and I’m shocked she isn’t. But it won’t matter in the long because it’s Clarke’s award to lose.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Billy Crystal – Mr. Saturday Night as Buddy Young Jr.
Myles Frost – MJ as MJ
Hugh Jackman – The Music Man as Harold Hill
Rob McClure – Mrs. Doubtfire as Daniel Hillard / Euphegenia Doubtfire
Jaquel Spivey – A Strange Loop as Usher

Will Win: Jaquel Spivey – A Strange Loop as Usher

Should Win: Jaquel Spivey – A Strange Loop as Usher

Notes: Myles Frost was the early favorite in my book but Spivey’s performance as gained enough steam that he’s the odds on favorite to win. As he should be.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Gabby Beans – The Skin of Our Teeth as Sabina
LaChanze – Trouble in Mind as Wiletta Mayer
Ruth Negga – Macbeth as Lady Macbeth
Deirdre O'Connell – Dana H. as Dana H.
Mary-Louise Parker – How I Learned to Drive as Li'l Bit

Will Win: Gabby Beans – The Skin of Our Teeth as Sabina

Should Win: Deirdre O'Connell – Dana H. as Dana H.

Notes: With the exception of Parker, I wouldn’t have a problem with any of these women winning. I think Beans takes it but I would really love to see ‘Dana H.’ recognized and it starts with O’Connell’s performance.

Deirdre O’Connell in Dana H. (Photo: Chad Batka)

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Simon Russell Beale – The Lehman Trilogy as Henry Lehman
Adam Godley – The Lehman Trilogy as Mayer Lehman
Adrian Lester – The Lehman Trilogy as Emanuel Lehman
David Morse – How I Learned to Drive as Uncle Peck
Sam Rockwell – American Buffalo as Teach
Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Lackawanna Blues as Various
David Threlfall – Hangmen as Harry Wade

Will Win: Adrian Lester – The Lehman Trilogy as Emanuel Lehman

Should Win: Adrian Lester – The Lehman Trilogy as Emanuel Lehman

Notes: This is where I don’t think the multiple nods for ‘The Lehman Trilogy’ will cancel each other out. Look for Lester to take this one.

Best Revival of a Musical

Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man

Will Win: Caroline, or Change

Should Win: Caroline, or Change

Notes: The original production of ‘Caroine, or Change’ got lost in the ‘Wicked’/’Avenue Q’ awards season of 2004. This is a masterpiece by Jeanine Tesori and Tony Kushner and it shouldn’t be overlooked again. Especially considering the revival production is better than the original.

Best Revival of a Play

American Buffalo
for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf
How I Learned to Drive
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Will Win: Take Me Out

Should Win: for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf

Notes: Ntozake Shange’s work is a revelation and what Camille A. Brown did with it is remarkable. Give it this award.

Best Play

Clyde's – Lynn Nottage
Hangmen – Martin McDonagh
Skeleton Crew – Dominique Morisseau
The Lehman Trilogy – Stefano Massini and Ben Power
The Minutes – Tracy Letts

Will Win: The Lehman Trilogy

Should Win: The Lehman Trilogy

Notes: The Lehman Trilogy has been my favorite for this award for a while now, I’d be shocked if it doesn’t take the big prize.

Best Musical

A Strange Loop
Girl from the North Country
MJ
Mr. Saturday Night
Paradise Square
Six

Will Win: A Strange Loop

Should Win: A Strange Loop

Notes: COVID plays a part in this category because without it, ‘Girl from the North Country’ would have won over ‘Moulin Rouge’ a year ago and MJ would have been nominated last year as well. ‘Six’ was my early favorite but with ‘A Strange Loop’s surprising Broadway transfer, it cemented the win. Much deserved, it’s that good.

My 2022 Tony Awards Predictions

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